Should Nigeria’s political elites and
other stakeholders fail to harness the potential for nation-building and
cohesive economic growth 'a Yugoslavia-type of violent disintegration
is much more probable with Nigeria splintering up to a dozen parts. It
will be no easy split for dreamers of fragmented nations out of Nigeria
as we know it now. In recent times, two major violent centrifugal forces
have emerged to seriously threaten the continued existence of Nigeria
as one nation, namely Islamic supremacists in the North and Ijaw
insurrectionists in the Niger Delta. As will be shown in this write-up
both of these regions – core North and Niger Delta - will also suffer
the worst if Nigeria unravels.
Niger Delta
The so-called Niger Delta militancy is largely an Ijaw affair as there
are very few if any Ikwerres, Ogonis, Itsekiris or other non-Ijaw Niger
Deltans in MEND, NDPVF, Egbesu and other such insurrectionists. In other
words, non-Ijaw Niger Deltans are for the most part not interested in
the Niger Delta republic Ijaw separatists are fighting for, as the
non-Ijaws are also wary of Ijaw aggression and hegemony. In the unlikely
event Nigeria disintegrates, all hell will break loose in the Niger
Delta as the non-Ijaws will take up arms to challenge Ijaw hegemony.
Rival ethnic militias will tear at each other and the region will become
embroiled in a protracted civil war. This is not at all farfetched
scare-mongering; just a few years ago Itsekiris, Ijaws and Urhobos were
killing each other in Warri because of ordinary local government
headquarter.
One doesn’t need to be a soothsayer to predict the
massive conflagration that would ensue if the various Niger Delta
ethnicities no longer have we parasitic Northerners as their common
enemy and oil wells (not local government HQs) are at stake.
Already Ijaws have had scuffles and territorial disputes with several of
the non-Ijaw Niger Delta ethnic groups among whom Ijaws settle; from
Ilajes in Ondo state to Ibibios in Akwa Ibom state where they are
supposed to be a negligible minority. Several years ago, Ijaws even went
as far as Lagos to battle OPC. So the recent Atlas cove attack was by
no means the first Ijaw aggression in Lagos.
A minority group
(Ijaw) having the temerity to challenge a majority group (Yoruba) on the
majority’s own turf. One cannot help but shudder at the tragedy that
awaits non-Ijaw Niger Deltans if Nigeria implodes. Then there is the
Biafra / Igbo factor. The oil-rich riverine Igbos (Obigbo, Etche,
Ikwerre etc) who produce much of Rivers state’s on-shore crude, are
unlikely to join the prospective Ijaw dominated Niger Delta republic.
They will most likely join the inland and Anioma Igbos to form Biafra.
If they don’t join voluntarily, Biafrans will still endeavour to
exercise sovereignty over them not just because they are
ethno-linguistically Igbos - despite some of their politically
convenient denials – but more importantly because the riverine Igbos
provide vital access to the sea which Biafra will desperately need.
Quite probably the Biafrans will battle the Ijaw dominated Niger Delta
republic for control of River’s oil wells and unfettered access to the
Atlantic ocean. Yorubas will also be drawn into the Niger Delta fray to
secure their Ilaje and possibly Itsekiri cousins from Ijaw hegemony.
Following the recent Atlas cove attack, several Yoruba groups (OPC, YCE
etc) have already read the riot act to Ijaw insurgents to desist from
aggression in Yoruba-land. So one can be sure, Yorubas will not leave
Ilajes to the mercy of Ijaw expansionism.
Arewa
Up there in the North, Islamists who are barely restrained by the need
to continue to enjoy oil wealth from the non-Muslim South, will feel
free to pursue their Jihadist agenda for totalitarian Islamization. With
the collapse of the failed Nigerian state and its security agencies
(Police, Army), extremist groups like the recently demolished Boko Haram
will proliferate, as post-Nigeria Arewa degenerates into an Islamist
anarchy.
Again this isn’t farfetched scare-mongering. Just over a
year ago our gallant soldiers crushed another Boko-Haram type Islamist
insurgency in the Panshekara / Challawa area of Kano. A few months ago,
there were news and police reports of an Islamic terrorist training camp
somewhere around Zaria. Millions of northern Muslims already share Boko
Haram’s abhorrence for Western education, which is why they only send
their children to Quranic schools (Tsangiya) that breed hundreds of
thousands of potential Islamist recruits. Notice how support for Boko
Haram initially snowballed among some disgruntled malcontents, before
the recent massive security crackdown.
Moderate Northern Muslims
will attempt to battle such extremism, but they will fail. For one thing
most of the educated moderate Muslims do not have the same stomach for
violence as the martyrdom-seeking Islamists who look forward to screwing
72 virgins in Al-Jannah – Islamic heaven. For another thing, the
excruciating economic hardship and accompanying social discontent in
post-Nigeria Arewa occasioned by sudden cessation of oil revenues from
the South and skyrocketing cost of petroleum products from the same
hostile South, will push millions of ill-educated, Islamo-brainwashed,
easily manipulated pauperized Talakawa into the hands of Islamic
extremists…a la Karl Marx’s opium for the suffering masses.
After
all Sharia is the cure-all social panacea even for massive retrenchment
and markedly increased taxes that will inevitably follow as
post-Nigeria northern government(s) drastically prunes expenditure and
endeavour to make up for lost oil revenue. The increased support for
extremists by the impoverished masses will bolster Islamist militancy.
By denouncing secular education as abomination (haram), Boko Haram
tacitly condemned educated northern elites as apostates (Takfir), who
according to Islamic law should be killed. Thus in the Islamist anarchy
of Nigeria, nemesis will catch up with many of the so-called Northern
leaders who failed to enforce compulsory secular education that could
have emancipated and empowered our people against Boko Haram extremism.
As in other Islamist anarchies (Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq), foreign
Jihadists will also be drawn into the fray. And I’m not referring to the
usual rag-tag amateur mercenary Jihadis from Chad and Niger; but
Al-Qaeda type, Pakistani trained professional Mujahideen. After all Bin
Laden has severally mentioned Nigeria as ripe for Islamic revolution.
Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has already spilled over from
Algeria into neigbouring Mali from where they could easily crossover to a
fractured Arewa. Since Al-Qaeda is a global Islamist syndicate for
Caliphal world domination, their activities won’t be restricted to the
North. They will most likely foray into the parts of the South with
large Muslim populations – notably northern Edo and Yoruba-land.
In addition, the major Islamist powers - Saudi Arabia and Iran - will
both try to gain a foothold in Black Africa’s largest Muslim population
by supporting rival Islamist factions.
Christians in the core
North states with large population of indigenous non-Muslims (e.g Borno,
Gombe & Bauchi) will organize their own militias to fend off
Islamists. Add to this combustible mix of Islamist militancy and
Christian militias, violent eruption of long simmering animosities
between Hausa-Fulanis and Middle belt minorities; the result would be a
catastrophe of Armageddon proportions that will make Somalia look like
child’s play.
If the incessant religious violence in the North
within the last two decades is anything to go by, we can also expect
another 1966-type bloodbath of Easterners. But this time not only Igbos
and Eastern minorities will be ethnically cleansed, but all southerners
and even Middle belters in the core North. This will certainly be
followed by massive retaliations down South. These are just some of the
ugly scenarios that await us if we are unable to make Nigeria work. The
prospects are quite dire as a peaceful Soviet Union-type break-up is
unlikely. On the contrary a Yugoslavia-type of violent disintegration is
much more probable with Nigeria splintering up to a dozen parts. Old
and subliminal ethno-religious animosities will violently erupt as our
disparate ethnic pseudo-nationalities battle each other in a fratricidal
scramble for territory and resources.
let's unite for betterment
of all of us, there is strength in diversity and numbers
long live nigeria
By Daniel Aremu.
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