The Inevitable Consequence: Should Nigeria Disintegrate.

Should Nigeria’s political elites and other stakeholders fail to harness the potential for nation-building and cohesive economic growth 'a Yugoslavia-type of violent disintegration is much more probable with Nigeria splintering up to a dozen parts. It will be no easy split for dreamers of fragmented nations out of Nigeria as we know it now. In recent times, two major violent centrifugal forces have emerged to seriously threaten the continued existence of Nigeria as one nation, namely Islamic supremacists in the North and Ijaw insurrectionists in the Niger Delta. As will be shown in this write-up both of these regions – core North and Niger Delta - will also suffer the worst if Nigeria unravels.

Niger Delta

The so-called Niger Delta militancy is largely an Ijaw affair as there are very few if any Ikwerres, Ogonis, Itsekiris or other non-Ijaw Niger Deltans in MEND, NDPVF, Egbesu and other such insurrectionists. In other words, non-Ijaw Niger Deltans are for the most part not interested in the Niger Delta republic Ijaw separatists are fighting for, as the non-Ijaws are also wary of Ijaw aggression and hegemony. In the unlikely event Nigeria disintegrates, all hell will break loose in the Niger Delta as the non-Ijaws will take up arms to challenge Ijaw hegemony. Rival ethnic militias will tear at each other and the region will become embroiled in a protracted civil war. This is not at all farfetched scare-mongering; just a few years ago Itsekiris, Ijaws and Urhobos were killing each other in Warri because of ordinary local government headquarter.
One doesn’t need to be a soothsayer to predict the massive conflagration that would ensue if the various Niger Delta ethnicities no longer have we parasitic Northerners as their common enemy and oil wells (not local government HQs) are at stake.
Already Ijaws have had scuffles and territorial disputes with several of the non-Ijaw Niger Delta ethnic groups among whom Ijaws settle; from Ilajes in Ondo state to Ibibios in Akwa Ibom state where they are supposed to be a negligible minority. Several years ago, Ijaws even went as far as Lagos to battle OPC. So the recent Atlas cove attack was by no means the first Ijaw aggression in Lagos.
A minority group (Ijaw) having the temerity to challenge a majority group (Yoruba) on the majority’s own turf. One cannot help but shudder at the tragedy that awaits non-Ijaw Niger Deltans if Nigeria implodes. Then there is the Biafra / Igbo factor. The oil-rich riverine Igbos (Obigbo, Etche, Ikwerre etc) who produce much of Rivers state’s on-shore crude, are unlikely to join the prospective Ijaw dominated Niger Delta republic. They will most likely join the inland and Anioma Igbos to form Biafra.
If they don’t join voluntarily, Biafrans will still endeavour to exercise sovereignty over them not just because they are ethno-linguistically Igbos - despite some of their politically convenient denials – but more importantly because the riverine Igbos provide vital access to the sea which Biafra will desperately need. Quite probably the Biafrans will battle the Ijaw dominated Niger Delta republic for control of River’s oil wells and unfettered access to the Atlantic ocean. Yorubas will also be drawn into the Niger Delta fray to secure their Ilaje and possibly Itsekiri cousins from Ijaw hegemony. Following the recent Atlas cove attack, several Yoruba groups (OPC, YCE etc) have already read the riot act to Ijaw insurgents to desist from aggression in Yoruba-land. So one can be sure, Yorubas will not leave Ilajes to the mercy of Ijaw expansionism.

Arewa

Up there in the North, Islamists who are barely restrained by the need to continue to enjoy oil wealth from the non-Muslim South, will feel free to pursue their Jihadist agenda for totalitarian Islamization. With the collapse of the failed Nigerian state and its security agencies (Police, Army), extremist groups like the recently demolished Boko Haram will proliferate, as post-Nigeria Arewa degenerates into an Islamist anarchy.
Again this isn’t farfetched scare-mongering. Just over a year ago our gallant soldiers crushed another Boko-Haram type Islamist insurgency in the Panshekara / Challawa area of Kano. A few months ago, there were news and police reports of an Islamic terrorist training camp somewhere around Zaria. Millions of northern Muslims already share Boko Haram’s abhorrence for Western education, which is why they only send their children to Quranic schools (Tsangiya) that breed hundreds of thousands of potential Islamist recruits. Notice how support for Boko Haram initially snowballed among some disgruntled malcontents, before the recent massive security crackdown.
Moderate Northern Muslims will attempt to battle such extremism, but they will fail. For one thing most of the educated moderate Muslims do not have the same stomach for violence as the martyrdom-seeking Islamists who look forward to screwing 72 virgins in Al-Jannah – Islamic heaven. For another thing, the excruciating economic hardship and accompanying social discontent in post-Nigeria Arewa occasioned by sudden cessation of oil revenues from the South and skyrocketing cost of petroleum products from the same hostile South, will push millions of ill-educated, Islamo-brainwashed, easily manipulated pauperized Talakawa into the hands of Islamic extremists…a la Karl Marx’s opium for the suffering masses.
After all Sharia is the cure-all social panacea even for massive retrenchment and markedly increased taxes that will inevitably follow as post-Nigeria northern government(s) drastically prunes expenditure and endeavour to make up for lost oil revenue. The increased support for extremists by the impoverished masses will bolster Islamist militancy. By denouncing secular education as abomination (haram), Boko Haram tacitly condemned educated northern elites as apostates (Takfir), who according to Islamic law should be killed. Thus in the Islamist anarchy of Nigeria, nemesis will catch up with many of the so-called Northern leaders who failed to enforce compulsory secular education that could have emancipated and empowered our people against Boko Haram extremism. As in other Islamist anarchies (Somalia, Afghanistan, Iraq), foreign Jihadists will also be drawn into the fray. And I’m not referring to the usual rag-tag amateur mercenary Jihadis from Chad and Niger; but Al-Qaeda type, Pakistani trained professional Mujahideen. After all Bin Laden has severally mentioned Nigeria as ripe for Islamic revolution. Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) has already spilled over from Algeria into neigbouring Mali from where they could easily crossover to a fractured Arewa. Since Al-Qaeda is a global Islamist syndicate for Caliphal world domination, their activities won’t be restricted to the North. They will most likely foray into the parts of the South with large Muslim populations – notably northern Edo and Yoruba-land.
In addition, the major Islamist powers - Saudi Arabia and Iran - will both try to gain a foothold in Black Africa’s largest Muslim population by supporting rival Islamist factions.
Christians in the core North states with large population of indigenous non-Muslims (e.g Borno, Gombe & Bauchi) will organize their own militias to fend off Islamists. Add to this combustible mix of Islamist militancy and Christian militias, violent eruption of long simmering animosities between Hausa-Fulanis and Middle belt minorities; the result would be a catastrophe of Armageddon proportions that will make Somalia look like child’s play.
If the incessant religious violence in the North within the last two decades is anything to go by, we can also expect another 1966-type bloodbath of Easterners. But this time not only Igbos and Eastern minorities will be ethnically cleansed, but all southerners and even Middle belters in the core North. This will certainly be followed by massive retaliations down South. These are just some of the ugly scenarios that await us if we are unable to make Nigeria work. The prospects are quite dire as a peaceful Soviet Union-type break-up is unlikely. On the contrary a Yugoslavia-type of violent disintegration is much more probable with Nigeria splintering up to a dozen parts. Old and subliminal ethno-religious animosities will violently erupt as our disparate ethnic pseudo-nationalities battle each other in a fratricidal scramble for territory and resources.
let's unite for betterment of all of us, there is strength in diversity and numbers

long live nigeria

By Daniel Aremu.

Interview With Fashanu on the ideal presidential system for Nigeria.

Full Text by The President of The Senate and Chairman National Assemblyof The Federal Republic of Nigeria Senator David A.B. Mark, at theRetreat on The Role of Media and Good Governance in Nigeria, 26th July2012.

-->Letme thank the Chairman and Members of the Senate Press Corps for inviting me tobe part of this historic occasion. I also want to commend the Chairman, SenateCommittee on Information and Media, Senator Harcourt Enyinnaya Abaribe, for thesustained synergy between the Press Corps and the Senate. I must also thank ourhost, the Governor of Abia State, His Excellency, Chief Theodore Ahamefule Orji(Ochendu), who has provided a conducive environment for this Retreat.We havegood reasons to gather here to deliberate on the role of the Media in attaininggood governance because we are major stakeholders in our democratic enterprise.Throughout history, the role of the media has been to inform, educate, act ascheck on the government, act as the voice of the voiceless and entertain. Themedia also serves as the public watchdog against the excesses of governmentsand its functionaries. In our situation, the media beams its searchlight on theexecutive, the judiciary and the legislature. In parliamentary parlance, themedia oversights the executive, legislature and judiciary.Therefore, the strategicrole of the media in our society cannot be overemphasized. To play its role aspublic watchdog effectively, the media must be able to bark and bite, whennecessary.Besides, the media can arouse the consciousness of the people fromtheir complacency to assert their rights and demand accountability from thosein authority. In a nutshell, the media provides the channel and platform forthe people to know what is happening in their environment and beyond. It isakin to holding a mirror so that the society, including the leaders and theled, can see their reflections. The 1999 Constitution (as Amended) recognisesthe media in Section 22 as one of the organs constitutionally mandated to holdgovernment or public officers accountable. Section 22 states inter alia “thepress, radio, television and other agencies of the mass media shall at alltimes be free to uphold the fundamental objectives contained in this chapterand uphold the responsibility and accountability of the government to thepeople.” In order to carry out this role creditably, media practitionersrequire good conduct and high level of responsibility.Ideally, a vibrant, aliveand energetic media, which every decent society craves for, must strive tostrengthen the executive, the legislature and the judiciary and otherinstitutions by prodding them to walk the talk, travel the narrow but straightpath in keeping their covenant with the people.An accountable, responsible andconscientious media is therefore not necessarily confrontational neither is itcompromised. It earns the respect of government as well as the governed byapplying the sacredness of facts in its day-to-day reportage. What is thepriority of news reporting or its area of focus in a developing nation likeours? Is it the political class or the mundane aspects of scandals, corruptionand violence in our society at the expense of developmental issues? Sometimesthese issues are over sensationalised and blown out of proportion. For me, anyresponsible media, aside from educating, entertaining and informing the public,must also create agenda for agencies of government on how to improve the livesof the people. As media men and women working towards the common good of all,you must pause and ponder over your performance. I believe this retreat willserve that purpose.But the media can only carry out these responsibilitieseffectively in a democratic and free environment. It was in recognition of thisfact that the National Assembly worked assiduously for the passage of theFreedom of Information Bill. Having attempted to define the role of the media,let me now for the purpose of this discourse try to provide the meaning of goodgovernance. I consider good governance as an ideal form of government whichindependent nations or states are expected to attain in the overall interest oftheir citizenry.The characteristics of good governance would be such that isparticipatory, consensus-oriented, accountable, transparent, responsive andefficient, equitable as well as all-inclusive and follow the rule of law. Mediafreedom and good governance are intertwined because the media can only thrivein an environment where good governance exists. Wherever there is goodgovernance, there would be access to adequate and credible information aboutgovernment activities.The passage of the Freedom of Information Bill by the 6thSenate, and its subsequent assent by President Goodluck Jonathan, GCFR, is toengender free flow of information in order to meet a major criterion for goodgovernance. I will like to return to this point as we progress in ourdiscourse.The question therefore is what role is the media playing to ensurethat the above stated parameters form the basis for government actions?Here, Iwould like to draw your attention to the obvious but huge responsibility of themedia. All citizens, be they leaders or the led, rely on the media forinformation. The information must therefore be correct and accurate. But one issometimes alarmed at the conflicting reports and inconsistencies from themedia. When an event occurs in Port Harcourt or Jos for instance, the newsreport on it would be a bunch of statistical contradictions. Most times it isthe drive to sensationalise that accounts for this. So rather than assuage thesituation and take the feelings of the readers into consideration, the media inthese instances end up inflaming passion and aggravating the situation. I amtold that there is a maxim in your profession that says ‘when you are in doubt,leave out’. I believe that this should be the guiding principle at alltimes.For the avoidance of doubt, to be cautious is not cowardice. It simplymeans weighing all the facts before publishing or broadcast. How you aggregatethese delicate balancing and uphold the sanctity or ethical standard ofjournalism, makes you either responsible or irresponsible professionals. Thepursuit for the unity, peace and progress of Nigeria should be the watch wordof the media. Sometimes newspapers are established with the sole aim to pulldown perceived opponents. Some of those employed to carry out such hatchet jobsare registered members of the Nigerian Union of Journalists (NUJ). Thereforethe Nigerian Press Council (NPC) as well as the National BroadcastingCommission (NBC) must regulate the media to respect our national security aswell as our national values and encourage patriotism. Doing this wouldguarantee good governance.The emergence of social media like facebook, twitter,blackberry messenger, YouTube etc have changed the face of media practice bymaking information sharing easier, faster and quicker. But this is not withoutits demerits. Social media has become a threat to the ethics of media practiceand good governance because of its accessibility and absolute freedom. Everyfreedom carries a responsibility. Even in advanced democracies, where we allagree that good governance is practiced, there is no absolute freedom. Itherefore believe that there must be a measure to check the negative tendenciesof the social media in our country. I say this because media practice,particularly journalism, process its news gathering and dissemination. It alsooperates a feedback mechanism and where the practitioners err there is room forrebuttal. But in the social media a faceless character can post any informationthat is absolutely false and misleading but will never retract it. At the endof the day one is bombarded with questions over what one has no business with.I suggest that schools of mass communication and journalism should review theircurricula to include the operations of social media.You will recall that I hadearlier remarked that I will address the issue of Freedom of Information Actlater. It is imperative to state that the FOI Act is not the exclusive preserveof media practitioners. Rather, it is a balancing Act. It is for all Nigeriansbecause all citizens have a right to know. Press freedom, freedom of speech andcivil liberties are indices for good governance. In a developing nation likeours, these alone are not the only requirements for good governance. Otherfreedoms such as freedom from hunger, poverty, diseases and ignorance are justas important. For instance a nation that is full of poor, hungry and ignorantpeople cannot claim to be on the path of good governance. It is therefore theresponsibility of the media to use every avenue to educate the masses abouttheir rights to food, security, shelter, education and healthcare. These arethe freedoms and rights that the media can also fight for to strengthen ourdemocratic institutions for good governance.As you fight for these rights andfreedoms As you fight for these rights and freedoms that we are entitled to,you must balance out these rights of the individual against other rights of theState and other members of society because any right cannot be absolute orsuperior to the other. It must coexist with other group rights. In fact, thegovernment also enjoys the rights to govern according to the mandate given toit by its citizens and the laws of the land. Such rights must also berespected. On the other hand, if media practitioners connive with corruptpublic officers, receive gratification that influences their editorial judgmentor fail to promote public good at the expense of the fact, which is regarded assacred in their profession, the media cannot be said to be propagating goodgovernance.I cannot claim to be unaware of the challenges confronting mediapractice in Nigeria. These range from harsh economic environment, securitythreat and non insurance to very poor remuneration of staff. It sounds ridiculousto hear in certain quarters that media staff are owed salaries in some cases upto 12 months. What do we expect from a media practitioner who can barely affordthree square meals on account of non payment of his/her entitlements? This isakin to unleashing terror on society by an angry, hungry practitioner whounwittingly transfers his/her aggression on the society. Government andpoliticians are the victims of this onslaught.I think media owners andregulatory agencies must live up to their responsibilities. In this connection,I strongly suggest that the Newspapers Proprietors Association of Nigeria(NPAN), Broadcasting Organisation of Nigeria (BON), the Nigeria Guild ofEditors (NGE), as well as the Nigeria Union of Journalists (NUJ) must collaborateto address this situation. After all, a labourer deserves his wages.Thegovernment should consider import duty waivers on media equipment such asnewsprints, ink and other machineries to lessen the pains in broadcasting andpublishing. We would need to work together with media owners and regulatoryagencies to find a way out of this through strong legislation.In the Senatetoday, I am glad that many of your colleagues are now Senators of the FederalRepublic of Nigeria including former President of the NUJ, Senator SmartAdeyemi, Senators Ayogu Eze, Chris Anyanwu and Babafemi Ojudu. By and large, Imust salute the courage, doggedness and steadfastness of the Nigerian media.The press has been in the vanguard for the promotion and sustenance of democracywe now enjoy. Even the struggle for independence was pioneered and fought forby the Nigerian media. Sometimes I do disagree with you, but the mediagenerally has fared well. They can still do more by deliberately planning andsustaining the efforts to bridge the information gap between the leaders andthe led. The press can achieve this if it applies the basic principles ofpatriotism, accountability, transparency and objectivity in the discharge ofits duty.The Nigerian media must uphold the sanctity of truth and fairness atall times as a cardinal contribution towards strengthening good governance anddemocratic institutions in Nigeria. On our part, we shall continue to create aconducive environment that will assist you to thrive as Reporters in the Parliament.However, I urge you to continue to refrain from mischief. I also urge you toeducate Nigerians on legislative practices and procedures. As you can see, notmany Nigerians have a grasp of the workings of the Legislature. This largelyaccounts for the demand by the electorate for elected members of the NationalAssembly to come and build roads and other infrastructure, whereas the job ofthe law maker as the name connotes is to make laws for the peace, progress andgood governance of Nigeria. However as Legislators, we shall continue toprovide interventions that will make life meaningful to all Nigerians.I nowhave the singular honour and privilege to declare the 2012 Senate Press CorpsRetreat open.I wish you successful deliberations. May God bless us and ourefforts. Thank you.

Being the Address by the President of the Senate andChairman, National Assembly of the Federal Republic of Nigeria, Senator DavidA.B. Mark, at the Retreat on the Role of the Media and Good Governance inNigeria, held at the Michael Opara Auditorium, Umuahia, Abia State, on July 26,2012